the effect of macroeconomic variables on value-added agriculture: approach of vector autoregresive bayesian model (bvar)

نویسندگان

اسماعیل پیش بهار

قادر دشتی

رویا فردوسی

چکیده

there are different ideas and opinions about the effects of macroeconomic variables on real and nominal variables. to answer the question of whether changes in macroeconomic variables as a political tool is useful over a business cycle, understanding the effect of macroeconomic variables on economic growth is important. in the present study, the bayesian vector autoregresive model and seasonality data for the years between 1991 and 2013 was used to determine the impact of monetary policy on value-added agriculture. predicts of vector autoregresive model are usually divertaed due to a lot of parameters in the model. bayesian vector autoregresive model estimates more reliable predictions due to reducing the number of included parametrs and considering the former models. compared to the vector autoregressive model, the coefficients are estimated more accurately. based on the results of rmse in this study, previous function nrmal-vyshart was identified as a suitable previous disteribution. according to the results of the impulse response function, the sudden effects of shocks in macroeconomic variables on the value added in agriculture and domestic venture capital are stable. the effects on the exchange rates, tax revenues and monetary will bemoderated after 7, 5 and 4periods. monetary policy shocks ,in the first half of the year, increased the value added of agriculture, while in the second half of the year had a depressing effect on the value added.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

the effect of a selfregulatory approach on the improvement of efl learners listening comprehension

تاثیر آموزش مهارت خود محوری بر روی ارتقاء مهارت شنیداری زبان آموزان هدف این پژوهش بررسی عوامل موثر در ارتقا مهارت شنیداری زبان آموزان ایرانی بود. در مرحله اول این تحقیق پژوهشگر پس از انجام مصاحبه نود زبان آموز را با استفاده از تست ایلتس انتخاب شدند. برای بررسی عوامل عوامل موثر در ارتقا مهارت شنیداری زبان آموزان ایرانی از دو نوع فیلم ویرایش شده و ویرایش نشده استفاده گردید.برای انجام تح...

the effect of using model essays on the develpment of writing proficiency of iranina pre-intermediate efl learners

abstract the present study was conducted to investigate the effect of using model essays on the development of writing proficiency of iranian pre-intermediate efl learners. to fulfill the purpose of the study, 55 pre- intermediate learners of parsa language institute were chosen by means of administering proficiency test. based on the results of the pretest, two matched groups, one as the expe...

the use of appropriate madm model for ranking the vendors of mci equipments using fuzzy approach

abstract nowadays, the science of decision making has been paid to more attention due to the complexity of the problems of suppliers selection. as known, one of the efficient tools in economic and human resources development is the extension of communication networks in developing countries. so, the proper selection of suppliers of tc equipments is of concern very much. in this study, a ...

15 صفحه اول

the effect of functional/notional approach on the proficiency level of efl learners and its evaluation through functional test

in fact, this study focused on the following questions: 1. is there any difference between the effect of functional/notional approach and the structural approaches to language teaching on the proficiency test of efl learners? 2. can a rather innovative language test referred to as "functional test" ge devised so so to measure the proficiency test of efl learners, and thus be as much reliable an...

15 صفحه اول

the effect of taftan pozzolan on the compressive strength of concrete in the environmental conditions of oman sea (chabahar port)

cement is an essential ingredient in the concrete buildings. for production of cement considerable amount of fossil fuel and electrical energy is consumed. on the other hand for generating one tone of portland cement, nearly one ton of carbon dioxide is released. it shows that 7 percent of the total released carbon dioxide in the world relates to the cement industry. considering ecological issu...

منابع من

با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید


عنوان ژورنال:
اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

جلد ۲۸، شماره ۳، صفحات ۲۸۲-۰

کلمات کلیدی

میزبانی شده توسط پلتفرم ابری doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023